search

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

The Brotherhood's Mask Slips: The West will likely get what it deserves


 AlMasryAlYoum (Brotherhood leaders announce they'll implement Sharia, set off storm ):
Mahmoud Ezzat, the Muslim Brotherhood's deputy Supreme Guide, said in a forum held in the Cairo district of Imbaba on Thursday that the group wants to establish an Islamic state after it achieves widespread popularity through its Freedom and Justice Party. Meanwhile, Brotherhood leader Saad al-Husseiny, said at the forum that the group aims to apply Islamic legislation and establish Islamic rule. His remarks rattled the leaders of several political parties, who said the statements, which were at odds with the concept of a civil state, would worry liberals.
The protestations of the liberal parties notwithstanding, they probably don't have significant constituencies.
We'll see what the Egyptian majority of poor rurals want. I suspect they are the real target of the MB and are likely to decide which way the country goes, and they tend to follow the mosque. If I had to bet,  the prospects for an Islamic state are not bad at all, even if it will take some time and probably with the help of some really bad times.

The old regime was grounded in an alliance of Mubarak with the army: the latter got the economic benefits and the former's security system protected them. With that system down the army must get another political ally to protect its interests and who other the islamists can do the job? There are two other reasons this may work:

* The  MB realize that they need the army if they are to gain and sustain power
* The lower level of the army is probably islamist (remember who killed Sadat?)

As per my previous post on the subject, the army has already shown its colors. I also suspect that the head nods to Iran, Syria and Hamas are intended to play the same game with the US that the Arab regimes have always played with the gullible West: suck aid  based on the implicit threat that if they don't get it, they have an alternative axis. And it will work: they will increasingly go against Western interests, yet the funds will continue to flow.

No comments: