Barry Rubin: Thoughts on Iran, Nuclear Weapons, and Tehran's Regional Role
"Hitler's primary task was to put himself over as a misunderstood moderate....Trotsky summed it up neatly: 'Anyone who expects to meet a lunatic brandishing a hatchet and instead finds a man hiding a revolver in his trouser-pocket is bound to feel relieved. But that doesn't prevent a revolver from being more dangerous than a hatchet.'"" --Joel Carmichael, Trotsky: An Appreciation of his Life, p. 396.
Months ago, when it was at its height, I wrote that the hysteria about Israel allegedly being about to attack Iran and the argument by some that Israel should do so were nonsense. Now it is clear that there was never any chance that such a thing would happen. And that idea was a bad one expressed by non-Israelis who didn't know what they were talking about.
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For his part, Dagan correctly noted, "The military option must always be on the table with regards to Iran,but it must also always be a last option." Israel always retains such a choice even if Tehran does get some deliverable nuclear capability. And such an outcome is still years away.
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The Israeli position is clearly explained by President Shimon Peres in an interview:
"The problem is the following: If we would say only economic sanctions [will be imposed], then the Iranians will say, `Okay, we will wait until it will be over.' Now what the Americans and Europeans and Israelis are saying is, `If you won’t answer the economic challenge, all other options are on the table.' It will not end there. Without that, there is no chance that the sanctions will [work]....The Iranians must be convinced [the threat of a military attack] is not just a tactic."
FP: Huh? Can somebody explain to me how the three highlighted items can be reconciled? If Israel was not going to attack, and believes nuclear weapons are years away, why should Iran think that threats of an attack are credible and why should it stop the program? Please, don’t go to Israel’s Jimmy carter for smart policy on Iran.
If you were Iran, after all the time the West has wasted on negotiations during which Iran has played it like a violin, would you give an inch? Well, Iran has just demonstrated its contempt, just like Hitler used to do:
Bill Katz: I'M SHOCKED, SHOCKED, AT THIS ARROGANCE.
I certainly never expected our friends, the Iranians, to be so stiff-necked right in the middle of a friendly negotiation about atomic bombs.
Iran warned on Tuesday that Western sanctions against the country's oil exports must be lifted and that their right to a civilian nuclear program recognized, or else Tehran could break off negotiations.
Iran's delegation said a negative response from EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is leading six-power group talking with Iran, would mean "the end of the negotiations in its current configuration.
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History doesn't repeat itself. It's the psychology of history that repeats itself. What we're seeing now, especially from the Obama crowd, is a repeat of the delusional psychology of the 1930s, captured so well in Erik Larson's "In the Garden of Beasts," an account of the tenure of America's ambassador to Nazi Germany in the early thirties.
FP: This should not be a surprise to my readers. Iran has the West’s number down pat. They know the West will cave—in fact it already has.
Yaki Dayan: It's the foreign policy, stupid
Israel is concerned that the U.S. is ultimately liable to shift to a Cold War-style containment of Iran.
See what I mean? And if you think Iran is another USSR, you’re gravely mistaken.
The border with Egypt has now become the Israel Defense Forces' most turbulent and dangerous front, requiring the deployment of the most elite units.
Boaz Bismuth: The Islamists wanted too much
Eventually, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood will get all the power it desires, only at a slower pace.
The Sinai desert: From strategic depth to strategic threat
FP: Remember my warning of the strategic danger of Israel going back to being completely surrounded again by sworn enemies, more dangerous than their old versions? This is only the beginning: if and when Assad falls and is replaced by Islamists, and with the increased militancy of Islamists in Jordan, and Hizb’allah in Lebanon, not to mention this:
Gazans welcome claim of Islamist victory in Egypt
Gazans voice hope for "real improvement in our lives, to end the blockade, to have free borders with Egypt and the world" • Hamas activists distribute sweets to celebrate news of Muslim Brotherhood victory in Egypt presidential election.
what do you think will happen with the West down, Islamizing and anti-Semitic and the US cowed by Islamism to realign with it?
Washington tells Egypt’s military to cede power
US spokesperson warns billions in US aid could be at stake if control not handed over to elected officials
The temptation will be irresistible:
Palestinians in Gaza fire 22 rockets in 24 hours
IAF strikes rocket squad, critically injuring one; at least 4 Palestinians killed in past day; after refraining from launching rockets itself, Hamas claims responsibility for 10 launches.
Uhuh.
Syria, Iran, Russia and China plan joint war games, Iranian news agency says
Largest exercise in Mideast history set to take place within a month; Syrian official denies report
FP: While Europe is down and the US is cutting military budget to the bone. How do you like the PostWest so far?
Playing with, or putting out, the Holocaust fascination fire?
While experts say German plans for ‘Mein Kampf’ excerpts in schools is a way to demystify the Hitler tome, critics prefer to keep it taboo
FP: Demystifying Hitler in an atmosphere of crisis and anti-Semitism, now that’s a good idea. It’s hard to tell where it’ll lead, right?
Bill Katz: YOUNG AMERICANS IN TROUBLE
Many don't realize how severely the recession has impacted younger Americans. For many, it's been a catastrophe.
Young US households — those aged 35-to-44 — lost a stunning 59 percent of their wealth during the recession, a government report released yesterday revealed.
That’s the stiffest hit of any age group, said the report from the US Census Bureau.
The age group — typically struggling with mortgages, tuition bills and rising tax bills — makes up the backbone of America’s middle class.
The losses were mainly due to the drop in the value of their homes during the 2005 through 2010 period, the report said.
“Lower- and middle-income households got especially creamed because their biggest asset is their home, and that got crushed,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Overall, the average family lost 35 percent of its household wealth, composed largely of home values and stock investments.
The plunge in real estate and securities, among other negative events, left the average family holding net assets valued now at $66,704, a steep drop from $102,844 in 2010.
Ah, hope and change. It's very hard to know exactly how this will play out politically. Discerning voters will see that the economic policies of the Obama administration are getting them nowhere. At the same time, it's been pounded into their heads that the recession started under BUSH (!!) and CHENEY (!!!!!). That is only partly true. One of the engines behind the recession was the irresponsible home-mortgage policy of liberal federal agencies like Fannie Mae. At the same time, we fully concede that some slick operators on Wall Street contributed mightily.
I suspect most people in the affected age group will realize that we can't go on the way we've been going, and will vote for change in November. Will there be enough of them? Pray.
FP: Societies that so rapidly lose their middle class and a whole generation of youth are not likely to recover and survive healthy. And the kleptocratic welfare state is not done yet. Now this:
Debbie Schlussel: Liberal Study: Anchor Babies, Immigrant Kids Destroying Economy, Fastest Growing Population Grp
Here’s more hard evidence that Barack Obama’s newly announced amnesty for “kids” under age 30 is creating long-term damage to America. And it’s a policy, by the way, which Mitt Romney wouldn’t say he’d reverse . . . because he won’t. We’ve long known that anchor babies–not just their illegal alien parents–are a huge drain on American society and our dying economy. They cost the State of California–just that state–billions of dollars. But now even a liberal children’s foundation is sounding the clarion call through a study that says America’s future will be undermined by the children of immigrants, that they will destroy an economy which is already pretty sick and wounded.
The education, health and socioeconomic lot of the children of immigrants, the fastest-growing population group in the U.S., has raised concerns about how those children will perform when they enter the workforce.
Many of the parents are Hispanic and speak little or no English. And though the story of the U.S. is one of immigrants whose children assimilate, some researchers worry about the prospects for this generation. Their performance, they say, could undermine the U.S. economy as the children grow up, affecting everything from medical services for baby boomers to home prices.
FP: Give us your poor… No problem: we will fund even more welfare, education, health for them. After all, we borrow enough from China. Let’s incentivize more aliens to do it. But hey, didn’t Obama intend to take the US down a few pegs? He is keeping his promise.
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